OFICINA DE PRESUPUESTO DEL CONGRESO - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – JULY 2020

by Nicolas Perez | Aug 10, 2020 | Tax Revenue

Total tax revenue amounted to AR$559.09 billion in July, which implied a nominal growth of 24% YoY, however, it contracted for the seventh consecutive month when adjusted for inflation, showing a decrease of 13% YoY.

In the first seven months of the year, total collection amounted to AR$3.44 trillion, 26.2% higher than in the same period of last year.

The main factor behind the drop in inflation-adjusted tax revenues was the economic impact of COVID-19. The national tax revenue is strongly linked to the level of activity, so the recessionary context, deepened by the pandemic, is the main factor explaining why tax revenue has decreased in 22 of the last 25 months in real terms.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – 2019

by Juan Fourcaud | Jul 17, 2020 | Budget Execution

Public Investment executed during 2019 totaled AR$251.52 billion which, after adjusting for AR$67.28 billion of advances to suppliers included last year asset adjustment of Real Direct Investment, amounted to AR$184.24 billion (-29.7% real variation YoY). This is explained by the reduction of capital transfers (-39.7% YoY), which could not be offset by the increase in Real Direct Investment (2.1% YoY) so public investment measured as a proportion of total expenditure (3.94%) and GDP (0.85%) dropped in 2019.

The current appropriation was 15.6% lower than budgeted in real terms, execution level was at 82.8%, and the average value was AR$4,100 per capita, implying a drop compared to 2018 in real terms.

Expenditure on Real Direct Investment totaled AR$ 87.06 billion in 2019, of which 89.5% were investment projects and 10.5% acquisition of capital goods, with an implementation level of 79.7% and 64.0%, respectively. The drop in Real Direct Investment was of -13.8% YoY in real terms, compared to 2018, given that the decrease in the acquisition of capital goods (-62.9%) could not be offset by the increase of investment projects (+2.1%).

Last year ended with 782 projects with positive current appropriation for AR$97.75 billion, 50% of which were concentrated in 14 projects (1.8%). Only one work comprised 96.5% of them and the rest contained multiple works bringing the total to 840.

The 50 most important works accounted for 72.3% of current appropriations and the financial investment reached 79.4%, a level comparable to the average. The physical execution of these 50 works was highly variable, as the initial programming ranged from 0% to 100%, with an average of 34.9%, while the executed works ranged from 0% to 81.1%, with an average of 17.4%. Of the 840 investment projects under execution, 43.7% showed a minimum degree of physical progress and 19.8% showed a high degree of progress.

On the other hand, 70.4% of works have started in previous years, and 10.8% started in 2019, and the projected duration of works is on average 5.9 years, although concentrated in the range of projects of 5 to 6 years and 1 to 3 years.

In 2019, there were 250 investment projects for the Plan Belgrano with a current appropriation of AR$14.8 billion (-26.3% real variation YoY) and expenditures for AR$16.76 billion, of which 57.7% were incurred by the Northwest region and 42,3% by the Northeast region.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – JUNE 2020

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 15, 2020 | Budget Execution

During the first half of the year, the national government recorded a primary deficit of AR$911.12 billion due to the increase in expenditures and the decrease in revenues, both conditioned by the health crisis. his deficit was financed with profits from the Central Bank of Argentina.
In the first half of the year, primary expenditures increased 22.3% YoY in real terms. This variation is almost entirely explained by the fiscal measures adopted by the national government within the framework of the COVID-19 emergency and the social isolation measures. Meanwhile, given the year-on-year drop in debt interest (-38.7% YoY), the increase in total expenditures had a more moderate expansion of 0.9% YoY.
The programs implemented to face the health challenge implied an expenditure of around AR$449.73 billion, without which primary expenditure would have grown by 3.2% in real terms compared to the first half of the previous year.
Through twelve amendments, the initial Budget for the fiscal year increased by AR$845.41 billion, 67.6% of which was allocated to reinforce social benefits.
In June, pensions and retirement benefits fell in real terms for the first time in the semester (1.4%), but supplementary bonuses caused lower pensions to increase 11.7% above inflation.
The 71.8% drop in expenditure on housing and urban development was partly offset by the increase in expenditures on Potable Water and Sewerage, which rose 142.0% YoY, and on Financial Assistance for the Construction of Emergency Modular Hospitals, within the framework of COVID-19 ($4.38 billion).

Analysis of National Government Budget Execution – May 2020

by Nicolas Perez | Jun 10, 2020 | Budget Execution

The transfer of profits from the Central Bank to the National Treasury for AR$430 billion during May improved total revenues to face the higher expenses demanded by the health emergency and reduced the deficit in public accounts.

Primary expenditures increased by 45.1% year-on-year (YoY) in real terms, basically to cover expenditures made in the context of the pandemic, which amounted to approximately AR$160.86 billion during the month.
The increase in total expenditures slowed down to 21.3% YoY, mainly due to a 52.4% YoY decrease in debt interest payments.
Without the Central Bank’s help, the primary deficit would have totaled AR$265.34 billion and total revenues would have fallen by 35.8% YoY compared to the previous year.
The initial budget appropriation increased by AR$788.17 billion (16.2%), 93.4% of the increase being concentrated in social benefits (AR$541.23 billion), in transfers to the provinces (AR$124.92 billion) and in other current expenditures (AR$69.83 billion).

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – May 2020

by Nicolas Perez | Jun 5, 2020 | Tax Revenue

National tax revenue reached AR$499.53 billion in May, which implied a nominal growth of 12.4% year on year (YoY), but a drop of 21.7% YoY, when adjusted for inflation.
All taxes shrank in real terms, but the sharpest declines were in taxes related to foreign trade and VAT, with decreases of 49.1% and 27.8%, respectively. Both contractions are the sharpest since the beginning of 2002.
The decline in tax revenue during May was explained by the adverse macroeconomic context caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and by the fiscal relief measures implemented by the national government.
There was a record collection of the PAIS Tax (AR$11.9 billion) due to higher purchases of foreign currency.
Resources for the first five months of the year were 16.3% below OPC’s November estimate, basically because of changes in the economic and regulatory situation.
Tax relief measures in the framework of the pandemic in the first five months reduced the estimated revenue by AR$75.93 billion.

Public Debt Operations – April 2020

by Nicolas Perez | May 14, 2020 | Public Debt Operations

The government submitted its proposal for the restructuring of bonds issued under foreign legislation in April. The proposal covers twenty-one series of bonds totaling US$65.62 billion, eligible for swap into ten new securities (five denominated in dollars and five in euros), with annual payments, maturing in 2030, 2036, 2039, 2043, and 2047. The deadline for creditors to submit their consent, which was due on Friday, May 8, was extended to May 22.

Within the course of the negotiation, the payment of the interest coupons of the BIRAD 2021, 2026 and 2046 bonds (which are part of the bonds eligible for the swap) for a total amount of USD503 million, due on April 22, was not made. The grace period to make the payment runs until May 22, after which a default will occur.

Necessity and Urgency Decree (DNU) 346/2020 postponed to December 31 the payments of interest and amortization of public debt securities in dollars issued under domestic legislation. As a result, payments of USD18.38 billion were deferred until the end of the year, USD9.01 billion of which were held by private investors.

Six auctions were held during the month, resulting in the placement of AR$435.97 billion in securities in pesos, including AR$314.07 billion as part of a swap transaction of the BONCER TC20. In addition, financing was obtained from the Central Bank through the placement of USD171 million in Bills and Temporary Advances (TA) for AR$80 billion.

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