Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AMENDMENTS FOR THE YEAR 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 27, 2024 | Budget Amendments

The Budget Law approved by the National Congress is amended during the year in accordance with the delegation of powers arising from the regulations in force. Within this framework, it is important to analyze those amendments to provide updated data on the budgetary dynamics throughout the fiscal year.

To this end, these periodic reports focus on the analysis of budgetary amendments made by Administrative Decisions of the Chief of Cabinet of Ministers (JGM) or by Necessity and Urgency Decrees (DNU).

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – FEBRUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 20, 2024 | Public Debt, Public Debt Operations

At the close of February, the stock of public debt amounted to ARS105,161.038 billion and USD259.288 billion, which represented an increase for obligations payable in pesos of ARS13,574,567 billion and a decrease for those payable in foreign currency of USD8.702 billion with respect to January.

Interest of ARS204.475 billion and USD858 million was paid, of which USD781 million was paid to the IMF.
AL35 bonds in dollars were repurchased from the Central Bank for USD7.596 billion.
No net financing through Temporary Advances (TA) was recorded.
Maturities in pesos between March and June amount to ARS12,690.349 billion and in foreign currency USD4.657 billion.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Mar 7, 2024 | Budget Execution

Due to a decrease in expenditures (-23.8% YoY) and a slight increase in revenues (+0.4% YoY), in the first two months of the year, the National Government recorded a financial surplus 150.0% higher in real terms than in the same period of the previous year.

The primary surplus, which does not include interest payments, was 1,805.5% higher than that obtained a year earlier.
Total revenues grew 0.4% in the year-on-year comparison, driven by increases in the PAIS Tax (405.9% YoY), in Export Duties (70.9% YoY) and in VAT (15.4% YoY). These increases were partially offset by the decrease in resources from Social Security (-25.1% YoY) and Income Tax (-36.5% YoY).
Total National Government expenditures recorded a real fall of 23.8% YoY in the first two months of the year and the cut in primary expenditures, which does not include the increase in debt interest, rose to 33.6% YoY.
Pensions (-33.0% YoY real), energy subsidies (-59.5% YoY real), capital expenditures (-82.4% YoY real) and social programs (-29.9% YoY real) were the items that most contributed to the reduction in expenditures. However, debt interest grew 34.2% YoY.
In February, the financial result was in deficit (-ARS186.635 billion), although in the first two months of the year the surplus was maintained (ARS1,020.296 billion), with levels above the average of a 15-year cycle.
Total accrued expenditures represented 24.0% of the budget, which is an extension of the budget in force during 2023.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NON-AUTOMATIC TRANSFERS TO PROVINCIAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS

by Nicolas Perez | Feb 26, 2024 | Specific Budget Issues

During 2023, budget transfers made by the National Government to provincial and local governments totaled ARS1,934.885 billion. That amount implied 1.01% of GDP, 0.27 percentage points below the average of the previous 8 years.

The amount is equivalent to 13.5% of the resource revenue sharing regime, a percentage that varies greatly among the provinces.
Current transfers reached ARS1,455.969 billion (0.76% of GDP) and capital transfers ARS478.916 billion (0.25% of GDP).
The Fiscal Strengthening Fund of the Province of Buenos Aires was eliminated by Executive Order 192/2024 dated February 26, 2024. It is estimated that if the Fund had remained in force, it would have received ARS873.765 billion (0.14% of GDP) during the current fiscal year.

ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Feb 23, 2024 | Public Investment

Due to a more pronounced drop in Real Direct Investment, Public Investment decreased 7.3% in real terms during 2023, with an execution of 85% of the current appropriation for the year.

All functions decreased except for energy, because of the transfer of funds for the execution of the Néstor Kirchner Natural Gas Pipeline: transfers to ENARSA grew by 146.3% in real terms and are equivalent to more than half of transfers made to state-owned enterprises.
Transfers to trust funds fell by 41.8% year-on-year, and those to provinces and municipalities fell by 13.9% year-on-year.
Half of public investment (50.7%) was financed with resources from the National Treasury, which showed a real growth of 9.1% with respect to 2022.
A total of 20.8% of investment was financed with external credit.
The main investment project was the construction of the CAREM Phase II reactor.
The Ministry of Education accounted for 43.8% of total capital procurement, mainly for the purchase of computers under the Conectar Igualdad Program.

ANALYSIS OF PUBLIC INVESTMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – 2023

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – JANUARY 2024

by Nicolas Perez | Feb 22, 2024 | Public Debt, Public Debt Operations

As of January 31, 2024, the debt stock in pesos amounted to ARS91,591.133 billion and the debt stock in foreign currency amounted to the equivalent of USD267.99 billion.
This implied an increase of ARS7,719.312 billion and USD3.509 billion, respectively, compared to year-end 2023.
The Treasury obtained financing in pesos for ARS3,315.767 billion, mainly through auctions of CER-adjustable securities, and financing in foreign currency for the equivalent of USD14.363 billion.
Of these, USD9.644 billion were placements of Treasury bills to the BCRA for the renewal of similar instruments.
The IMF disbursed the equivalent of USD4.7 billion (SDR3.5 billion), enabled by the approval of the seventh review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF).
Debt maturities in domestic currency for the February to June 2024 term are estimated at ARS36,539.643 billion and those in foreign currency at USD6.874 billion, of which the largest amount is payable to the IMF for the equivalent of USD3.534 billion.