Juan Fourcaud - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL ON COMPREHENSIVE PROTECION TO PREVENT, SANCTION, AND ERADICATE VIOLENCE AGAINST OLDER PERSONS – S-2729/19

by Juan Fourcaud | Dec 11, 2020 | Cost Estimates

The purpose of the Bill on Comprehensive Protection to Prevent, Sanction, and Eradicate Violence against Older Persons (S-2729/19) is to eliminate all practices that constitute violence against older persons to guarantee the rights recognized in the Inter-American Convention on the Protection of the Human Rights of Older Persons, particularly those referring to the physical and moral integrity and to the development of a dignified life in old age.

Based on the analysis carried out, the measures with fiscal impact for the national government would be those related to the dissemination campaigns (Section 9.1) and the financial assistance programs for older persons (Section 9.4).

For the dissemination campaigns, an average monthly cost of AR$53.4 million is estimated. It has not been possible to estimate the fiscal impact of the financial assistance programs since information on the scope and modality of the benefit is required.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – NOVEMBER 2020

by Juan Fourcaud | Dec 9, 2020 | Tax Revenue

Tax revenue amounted to AR$649 billion in November, a nominal growth of 36.7% YoY, which is explained by the gradual increase in the level of activity, but mainly due to the payment facilities arising from Income Tax and Wealth Tax deadlines that this year took place in August. Revenue from the second income tax collection for transactions subject to PAIS tax also had a positive effect.

The real variation was 0.1% YoY in November, the third registered so far this year, partly due to the modified calendar of tax deadlines, the relaxation of social isolation, and a lower base of comparison with respect to November 2019.

In absolute terms, the taxes that most contributed to the nominal increase in revenue were Income Tax (39%), Value Added Tax (28.6%), Wealth Tax (10.6%) and Social Security resources (12.5%). PAIS Tax decreased its share due to greater restrictions applicable to taxable transactions. For this reason, it contributed only AR$8.5 billion.

TAX BURDEN ON PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITY. MAIN RESULTS

by Juan Fourcaud | Dec 3, 2020 | Tax Policy and Fiscal Federalism

The purpose of this report is to evaluate the consolidated tax burden on the meatpacking, metal-mechanic, supermarket, transportation, and hotel sectors in thirty locations in the country.

Under certain assumptions and without including some taxes such as Fuel Taxes or Export Duties, the average tax burden is equivalent to 12% of the companies’ turnover.

There is an important tax burden dispersion by activity and location. From a minimum of 7.5% of the total turnover for a meat packing activity carried out by an SME in the city of San Luis, to a maximum of 17.3% for a large hotel in Bariloche.
There are also differences in the tax burden depending on whether it is a small or large company and between firms in the same industry: from 25% in hotels to 50% in the meat packing sector.
There is double or triple taxation due to the overlapping of taxes, which makes it difficult to know the real cost that the productive sectors face.
This study refers to a tax burden baseline and is limited by the lack of information requested from chambers of commerce and municipalities, but which was not provided.

BUDGET EXECUTION OF GENDER – RESPONSIVE ACTIVITIES

by Juan Fourcaud | Dec 1, 2020 | Gender

This report analyzes the execution, as of November 13, of the budgetary activities labeled by the Executive Branch for their connection to gender equality.

As of November 2020, the National Budget includes thirty-five (35) budgetary activities with a gender perspective. These activities accrued an expenditure of AR$832.2 billion as of November 13, 2020, which accounted for 14.6% of the total expenditure of the National Government.

Income policies (direct monetary transfers) amounted to approximately 99% of Gender-Responsive Budget (GRB) and ANSES, the agency in charge of managing and administering these policies, practically concentrated the entire GBR spending. The purpose of this social policy is to achieve financial independence for female beneficiaries.

The level of physical execution of monetary transfers is very uneven. Some activities exceed 99% and others are barely above 26% of the annual schedule.
There are new activities labeled in the 2021 Budget for the promotion of income.
The budget for actions against gender-based violence was nominally doubled in relation to the extended 2019 appropriation, but the average level of execution is 46%.
As of the third quarter of 2020, 124,468 victims of gender violence were assisted through the 144 hotlines.
Out of the 55,000 doses for hormone treatments projected under the Gender Identity Law, 32,703 were distributed.

TAX BURDEN ON PRODUCTIVE ACTIVITY – METHODOLOGY

by Juan Fourcaud | Nov 26, 2020 | Tax Policy and Fiscal Federalism

The OPC is developing a project to analyze the tax burden on a set of economic activities at national, provincial, and municipal levels in Argentina, a research that covers 30 cities in 23 provinces and the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires.

This work is a methodological approach, which includes a mapping of provincial taxes and their capacity to provide public funds.
The overview of the main taxes, their legal basis and their collection impact aims to determine, among other things, the true magnitude of tax burden, tax burden on employment and the amount of resources generated by each tax.

Due to difficulties in establishing benchmarks and making comparative measurements, the focus will be on measuring the “theoretical tax burden”, according to the place where each activity is carried out. The assumption will be that each activity is carried out only in one place of residence and is taxed in only one jurisdiction.

In summary, this study, focused on 30 cities and on 5 sectors of activity, has revealed the existence of more than 150 taxes on economic activity in Argentina with places that accumulate between the three levels of government from 21 to 40 different taxes, which gives clear indications of the difficulty faced by any economic agent in complying with them.

The complex universe of the provincial tax system makes it difficult to have a solid basis for comparison and its performance is different per jurisdiction: unlike 2018, where some provinces took advantage of the opportunity to increase their tax rates up to the limit allowed by law, in 2019 there is a declining trend.

The permanent modifications in rates and fees diminish the legality and transparency of the system.

GUIDELINES FOR THE PREPARATION OF THE MACROECONOMIC SCENARIO (MONETARY-FINANCIAL SECTOR)

by Juan Fourcaud | Nov 13, 2020 | Other Publications

This document is an extension of the Macro-Fiscal Consistency Scheme (ECM-F) described in the document “Guidelines for the preparation of the macroeconomic scenario”, published in February 2020, with emphasis on the relation between the monetary-financial sector variables and the rest of the variables of the economy.

The purpose of this document is to outline the main methodological aspects and the technical tools used for the construction of the monetary-financial variables, which comprises the ECM-F and, it seeks to deepen the analysis of the ECM-F and enhance the technical quality of the short, medium, and long-term projections prepared by the OPC.