ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – MAY 2021

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – MAY 2021

The increase in total resources (net of Central Bank profits) and a decrease in expenditures led the National Government to record another decrease in the primary deficit in May, which reached AR$ 72.8 billion, an improvement in real terms of 81.2% with respect to the imbalance recorded in the same month of last year.

  • Excluding transfers from the Central Bank to the Treasury, total revenues expanded by 41.5% year-on-year (YoY) during May, mainly because of the growth in tax revenues, to which was added AR$ 58.24 billion from the Solidarity Contribution in the context of the pandemic.
  • Primary expenditure declined because of the drop in pensions (10.0% YoY) and public sector salaries (7.9% YoY), but also because the funds allocated to mitigate the effects of the health crisis were lower in the year-on-year comparison with May 2020.
  • Total expenditure, including debt interest payments, contracted 15.8% YoY.
  • Expenditures on social programs was reduced by 41.5%, basically because of the discontinuation of the IFE and the AETP. However, other social assistance programs were strengthened and, in some cases, increased by more than 70%.
  • There was a real increase of 36.3% in capital expenditures for the month of May (AR$ 58.69 billion), with increases in all components, but mainly in the funds allocated to the Pro.Cre.Ar. housing plan.
  • Expenditures related to the COVID-19 pandemic totaled AR$125.43 billion at the end of May. The funds allocated for this purpose increased by 308.9% since the budget began to be executed, partly because of higher exceptional revenues.
Analysis of Budget Execution – October 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – October 2019 – Accrual Basis

October’s primary balance was in surplus by AR$23.09 billion, improving previous year’s performance. However, considering the payment of interest on the public debt for AR$39.48 billion, the financial balance was in deficit by AR$16.38 billion.

So far this year, that negative balance amounts to AR$340.55 billion and implies an improvement of 51.6% YoY in real terms compared to the same period of 2018.

To a large extent, this is possible because in the first ten months resources grew at a rate of 57.1% YoY (2.1% YoY real) with respect to 2018, 15.3 percentage points above total expenditures, which grew by 41.9% YoY (-7.8% YoY real).

The item with the highest year-on-year expansion was family allowances, which grew by 26.1% in real terms, mainly due to the increase in the Universal Child Allowance.

National government salaries grew nominally 38.4% YoY, however, they contracted 8.9% YoY in relation to inflation.

In 2019, property income increased its share in total resources, basically due to the resumption of Treasury financing through the transfer of Central Bank profits and the decline in the level of economic activity and the formal labor market as of April 2018, with an impact on tax resources.

Budget Execution Report – First Quarter 2019 – Accrual Basis

Budget Execution Report – First Quarter 2019 – Accrual Basis

In a context of economic downturn, in March the national government had a better performance compared to the same month of the previous year, but liquefied the surplus recorded in the first two months of the year.

  • The National Government recorded in the first quarter a financial deficit of AR$42.19 billion, which implies a real drop of 47.9% compared to the same period of 2018.

  • Total revenues increased 39.4% YoY, and expenditures increased 34.0% YoY.

  • Export duties increased by 477.0.% YoY, becoming the most dynamic source of resources in the period.

  • Interest payments on public debt rose 65.1% YoY and economic subsidies doubled (107% YoY).

  • Capital expenditure remains at the same levels as a year ago, which means a fall in real terms of 33.7% YoY.

  • As of March 31, the initial budget appropriation was increased by AR$40.32 billion, AR$34.57 billion by Necessity and Urgency Decrees – DNU (86%) and AR$5.73 billion by Administrative Decisions – DA (14%).

  • The level of total expenditure implementation in the quarter was 19.1%.

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