Nicolas Perez - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – CUMULATIVE 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Jan 9, 2024 | Public Debt Operations

As of December 31, 2023, the debt stock in pesos amounted to ARS83,677.668 billion and that in foreign currency totaled USD264.968 billion.
During the year, debt in pesos had a net increase of ARS60,453.903 billion due to the combined effect of valuation adjustments, net debt issuance and interest capitalization.
Debt with the IMF amounted to approximately USD40.899 billion at year-end, which implies a reduction of USD5.1 billion with respect to the previous year-end.
During 2024, payments to the IMF are expected to total the equivalent of USD7.463 billion.
Net financing from the Central Bank to the Treasury totaled ARS1,698 billion in 2023 (ARS1,298 billion from temporary advances and ARS400 billion from profits).
Estimated debt services for 2024 in domestic currency total ARS94,103.633 billion and in foreign currency are estimated at USD33.090 billion.
Maturities in foreign currency for January are estimated at the equivalent of USD12.080 billion, of which USD8.104 billion are repayments of BCRA (Central Bank) bills and USD1.967 million for the IMF stand-by loan.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – CUMULATIVE 2023

NEW MONITORS ON NATIONAL RESOURCES

by Nicolas Perez | Jan 3, 2024 | Activities

The Argentine Congressional Budget Office (OPC) is working on the preparation of new monitors related to the budgetary activity of the National Government, which will be periodically updated.

One of them will detail the monthly evolution of current and capital transfers from the Central Government to non-financial state-owned enterprises of the National Government.

The data, expressed in a synthetic and graphic manner, may be consulted as a consolidated report or by company to track those transfers.

The monitor on state-owned enterprises will be the first to be published by the OPC in 2024.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET AMENDMENTS FOR 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 28, 2023 | Budget Amendments

The Budget Law passed by the National Congress is amended during the year in accordance with the delegation of powers arising from the regulations in force. Within this framework, it is important to analyze those amendments to provide updated data on the budgetary dynamics throughout the fiscal year.

To this end, these periodic reports focus on the analysis of budgetary amendments made by Administrative Decisions of the Chief of Cabinet of Ministers (JGM) or by Necessity and Urgency Decrees (DNU).

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – NOVEMBER 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 14, 2023 | Budget Execution

During the first eleven months of the year, the financial deficit fell by 7.6% YoY due to a reduction in total expenditures (4.1% YoY) that exceeded the fall in revenues during that same period (3.1% YoY).

The primary and economic deficits were also reduced.
The resources of the National Government that contracted the most were Export Duties (62.3% YoY), basically because of the fall in agricultural exports due to the drought, and Income Tax (15.3% YoY), due to the modality for settling the tax and the exclusion of salaried employees from the taxable base.
Transfers to provinces grew 5.6%. Until July they fell 28.0% YoY, but thereafter they grew every month: 27% YoY in August, 70.3% YoY in September, 57.0% YoY in October and 45.7% YoY in November.
Energy subsidies (-28.4% YoY), family allowances (-30.7% YoY) and pensions (-4.4% YoY) were those items that contributed most to the reduction in primary expenditure.
Other economic subsidies and transfers to finance capital expenditures were the expenditure items that increased the most.
Interest payments increased by 1.2% YoY and attenuated the reduction in total expenditures.

GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE CONTENTS OF THE 2024 NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET BILL

by Nicolas Perez | Dec 13, 2023 | Budget Law

The National Government Budget Bill for fiscal year 2024 estimates revenues equivalent to 14.4% of GDP (1.0 p.p. less than the current 2023 budget), primary expenditures with a share of 15.8% of GDP (-4.2 p.p. vs. current 2023) and interest on debt in the order of 1.7% of GDP (equivalent to 2023).

The projected dynamics for revenues and expenditures result in a primary deficit equivalent to 1.5% of GDP (4.7% of GDP in the current 2023 budget) and a financial deficit of 3.2% of GDP (6.5% in 2023).

The projected reduction in primary expenditures results from social benefits (-1.6 p.p. of GDP), economic subsidies (-0.8 p.p.), personnel expenses (-0.6 p.p.), transfers to provinces (-0.4 p.p.) and capital expenditures (-0.4 p.p.).

Likewise, real drops are projected in budget allocations for cross-cutting policies with respect to 2023: -21.9% for the gender equality policy, -22.2% for children and adolescents, -35.4% for the care of persons with disabilities and -29.8% for the sustainable environment and climate change policy.

The gross financing needs of the National Government for 2024 total 16.6% of GDP, including the financial deficit (3.2% of GDP), debt repayments (12.6% of GDP) and net financial investment (0.9% of GDP). They are expected to be covered by gross placements of government securities (14.9% of GDP, including intra public sector), gross granting of Temporary Advances from the Central Bank (0.9% of GDP) and disbursements from international organizations (0.9% of GDP).

This report analyzes the macroeconomic projections on which the 2024 Budget is based, and the tax revenue projections for 2023 and 2024 derived from such projections, presenting an exercise of distribution of tax resources between the National Public Sector and the provinces. In addition, the results arising from adjusting the projected tax revenue for 2024 based on the changes in the macroeconomic scenario and in the regulations in force that occurred after the submission of the 2024 Budget Bill are also presented.

PUBLIC DEBT OPERATIONS – OCTOBER 2023

by Nicolas Perez | Nov 28, 2023 | Public Debt Operations

Debt in domestic currency was repaid in October for ARS1,786.93 billion in principal and ARS146.218 million in interest. The Treasury obtained financing in pesos for ARS2,706.427 billion.
There were debt repayments in foreign currency for USD403 million and securities placements and loan disbursements for USD382 million.
Between November and December, amortization and interest payments are estimated at ARS2,341.752 billion and ARS5.014 billion, of which USD4.284 million relate to loans from the IMF.