The National Budget Bill for 2021 foresees for next year a decrease in deficits due to the partial
recovery of the economy, with an increase in public investments and a reduction in the payment
of interest on the debt.

  • According to the macroeconomic estimates of the Bill, the Gross Domestic Product
    (GDP) will suffer a real fall of 12.1% this year, the nominal exchange rate will be AR$81.4
    per dollar at the closing of the fiscal year, and the YoY inflation rate will be 32%. Next
    year’s GDP is expected to rise 5.5% in real terms, with a nominal exchange rate of
    AR$102.4 per dollar in December, and an inflation rate of 29% YoY.
  • Resources will increase by 9.7% YoY in real terms and total expenditure will fall by
    10.4% YoY.
  • This dynamic between revenue and spending will lead to an improvement in the primary
    balance in 2021, which would go from a deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2020 to a deficit of
    4.5% in 2021. The same applies to the financial balance, which would vary from a deficit
    of 10.5% of GDP in 2020 to a deficit of 6.0% in 2021.
  • Capital expenditures will have the largest real increase and debt interest the sharpest
  • Gross financing needs in the next fiscal year will be AR$6.4 trillion (17.2% of GDP). The
    Central Bank will contribute AR$800 billion to the Treasury, 62.2% less than this year.
  • Exports are expected to recover from a 14.2% YoY decline this year to a 10.4% YoY
    increase next year.
  • The Budget Bill does not provide neither financial allocations for Emergency Family
    Income – IFE (Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia) nor for assistance for the payment of
    private salaries (ATP), but it does provide a 24.1% increase in resources for vaccines
    (AR$45.4 billion), including the purchase of doses against COVID-19 (AR$13.69 billion).
Analysis of Budget Execution – November 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – November 2019 – Accrual Basis

The primary balance for the month of November resulted in a deficit of AR$109.34 billion, the third month of the fiscal year with a negative outcome. Debt interest amounted to AR$124.23 billion, which had an impact on the deficit of AR$233.57 billion in the month and accumulated a disequilibrium of AR$568.49 billion in the eleven months of the current year. Even so, this figure implied a real improvement of 32.9% YoY compared to that recorded in November last year.

National government revenues increased 58.8% year-on-year (YoY), mainly explained by the growth of Export Duties (141.1% YoY in real terms), as the agro-export sector speeded up settlements due to the expectation of an increase in tax rates.

November was the month with the highest year-on-year expansion of total expenditures so far this year (87.2% YoY), mainly driven by the growth of real direct investment (1,302.6% YoY), transfers to provinces (206.9% YoY) and interest on debt (155.1% YoY).

As of November 30, 82.0% of total budget was accrued, with the execution of current transfers to the provinces (86.2%) standing out. During this period, the initial budget approved for the year increased by AR$797.26 billion, which represents 19.1% of the initial appropriation. A total of 88.8% of the amendments were implemented through Necessity and Emergency Decrees, and the remaining 11.2% through Administrative Decisions.

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