The National Budget Bill for 2021 foresees for next year a decrease in deficits due to the partial
recovery of the economy, with an increase in public investments and a reduction in the payment
of interest on the debt.

  • According to the macroeconomic estimates of the Bill, the Gross Domestic Product
    (GDP) will suffer a real fall of 12.1% this year, the nominal exchange rate will be AR$81.4
    per dollar at the closing of the fiscal year, and the YoY inflation rate will be 32%. Next
    year’s GDP is expected to rise 5.5% in real terms, with a nominal exchange rate of
    AR$102.4 per dollar in December, and an inflation rate of 29% YoY.
  • Resources will increase by 9.7% YoY in real terms and total expenditure will fall by
    10.4% YoY.
  • This dynamic between revenue and spending will lead to an improvement in the primary
    balance in 2021, which would go from a deficit of 8.5% of GDP in 2020 to a deficit of
    4.5% in 2021. The same applies to the financial balance, which would vary from a deficit
    of 10.5% of GDP in 2020 to a deficit of 6.0% in 2021.
  • Capital expenditures will have the largest real increase and debt interest the sharpest
  • Gross financing needs in the next fiscal year will be AR$6.4 trillion (17.2% of GDP). The
    Central Bank will contribute AR$800 billion to the Treasury, 62.2% less than this year.
  • Exports are expected to recover from a 14.2% YoY decline this year to a 10.4% YoY
    increase next year.
  • The Budget Bill does not provide neither financial allocations for Emergency Family
    Income – IFE (Ingreso Familiar de Emergencia) nor for assistance for the payment of
    private salaries (ATP), but it does provide a 24.1% increase in resources for vaccines
    (AR$45.4 billion), including the purchase of doses against COVID-19 (AR$13.69 billion).
Share This
Skip to content