déficit primario - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – AUGUST 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 14, 2021 | Budget Execution

Driven by the strong increase in Export Duties, VAT, and Income Tax, in that order, National Government revenues increased by 12.3% in August in real terms year-on-year (YoY).

Mainly because of the increase in capital expenditures and energy subsidies, primary expenditures once again grew above inflation for the second time this year, breaking the opposite trend they had shown in the last five months: 5.0% YoY.

The dynamics between revenues and expenditures resulted in an improvement in real terms of the primary, fiscal, and revenue deficits: he year-on-year comparison showed a decrease of 39.3%, 21.7% and 13.3%, respectively.

Social Security contributions grew 4.2% year-on-year. The number of contributors to the system increased but taxable income grew below inflation.
Since May, ARS179.285 billion have been collected through the Solidarity and Extraordinary Contribution and ARS65.938 billion have been spent.
Subsidies to the Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico (CAMMESA) amounted to ARS102.935 billion with an increase of 126.6% YoY because of the gap between the cost of generation and tariffs and the delay in payment by the electricity distributors.
At the end of August, approximately ARS256.75 billion were executed, equivalent to 61.5% of the current appropriation (ARS417.187 billion) to meet the expenses related to the fight against COVID-19.
The initial budget for the year was increased by ARS1.015 trillion, with priority being given to social programs, energy subsidies and the procurement and distribution of vaccines.

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE 2022 DRAFT BUDGET PROGRESS REPORT

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 26, 2021 | Budget Law

As of May 31, the National Government accumulated a primary deficit of ARS172.41 billion and a financial deficit of ARS395.35 billion, prioritizing spending on social services, which accounted for 69.1% of total expenditure.

These figures are contained in the 2022 Budget Draft Progress Report sent by the Executive Power to the National Congress at the end of June.

The report states that the fiscal and financial measures to alleviate the effects of the pandemic reached a sum equivalent to 6.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2020, a proportion that would drop to 1.4% this year, with allocations to protect families and specific sectors.

Debt interest for this year is estimated to be equivalent to 1.5% of GDP. Apart from this, the report does not provide projections for 2021 and 2022.

Among the budgetary policy targets for the coming year are the management of the macroeconomy, the development of the country’s infrastructure, the strengthening of production, active social inclusion with a gender perspective, education, health, and public investment.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – JUNE 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 15, 2021 | Budget Execution

Because of a real fall in National Government expenditures, mainly in pensions and government wages, and an increase in the different revenue categories, public accounts improved, and the primary deficit was ARS473.1 billion, 64.0% less than that of the previous year.

Revenues showed a real expansion of 18.7% year-on-year (YoY), with the Solidarity and Extraordinary Contribution (ARS144.4 billion) and the jump in Export Duties (97.9% YoY) standing out.
Primary expenditures contracted by 7.3% YoY, mainly due to the negative variations in pensions (9.6% YoY) and government wages (5.0% YoY). On the other hand, there were significant increases in capital expenditures (92.1% YoY) and in energy subsidies (43.9% YoY).
The level of spending on social programs fell in real terms compared to last year but was three times higher when compared to the same period of 2019.
The initial budget for the fiscal year increased by ARS273.32 billion, whose priority allocations were social programs (REPRO II, PROGRESAR and PAMI, among others) and the acquisition, logistics and distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.
As of June, approximately ARS177.33 billion were implemented to address the health crisis, equivalent to 43.3% of the current appropriation (ARS409.6 billion).
As of June 30, total expenditures amounted to ARS4.21 trillion, equivalent to 48.6% of the current budget appropriation, with government wages accounting for 60.0%.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – MAY 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Jun 10, 2021 | Budget Execution

The increase in total resources (net of Central Bank profits) and a decrease in expenditures led the National Government to record another decrease in the primary deficit in May, which reached AR$ 72.8 billion, an improvement in real terms of 81.2% with respect to the imbalance recorded in the same month of last year.

Excluding transfers from the Central Bank to the Treasury, total revenues expanded by 41.5% year-on-year (YoY) during May, mainly because of the growth in tax revenues, to which was added AR$ 58.24 billion from the Solidarity Contribution in the context of the pandemic.
Primary expenditure declined because of the drop in pensions (10.0% YoY) and public sector salaries (7.9% YoY), but also because the funds allocated to mitigate the effects of the health crisis were lower in the year-on-year comparison with May 2020.
Total expenditure, including debt interest payments, contracted 15.8% YoY.
Expenditures on social programs was reduced by 41.5%, basically because of the discontinuation of the IFE and the AETP. However, other social assistance programs were strengthened and, in some cases, increased by more than 70%.
There was a real increase of 36.3% in capital expenditures for the month of May (AR$ 58.69 billion), with increases in all components, but mainly in the funds allocated to the Pro.Cre.Ar. housing plan.
Expenditures related to the COVID-19 pandemic totaled AR$125.43 billion at the end of May. The funds allocated for this purpose increased by 308.9% since the budget began to be executed, partly because of higher exceptional revenues.