Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

A surplus of AR$43.42 billion was recorded in July, a considerable improvement over the previous year’s figure (-AR$1.9 billion). The financial balance is negative by AR$21.04 billion but implies a drop of 44.4% in real terms in the year-on-year comparison. Transfers to provinces showed a monthly year-on-year drop for the first time this year.

  • The increase in resources slowed down in July, although they grew again above expenditures (55.9% vs. 49.0%).
  • Tax revenues (58.8%) led total revenue growth, while debt interest (186.4%) and capital expenditures (152.9%) were the fastest growing components of public expenditure.
  • In the first seven months of the year, the financial balance was negative by AR$359.1 billion, an increase of 11.2% with respect to the same period of the previous year. In real terms, this represents a reduction of 27.9%.
  • During the first seven months of the year, 57.0% of total expenditure was accrued, identical to the level recorded in the same period a year ago.
  • From the beginning of the fiscal year to the end of July, the initial budget was increased by AR$88.3 billion, that is, 2.1%. The 39.2% of the amendments were implemented through the Necessity and Urgency Decree 193, while the remaining 60.8% were implemented through four Administrative Decisions.
Considerations on 2020 Draft Budget Progress Report

Considerations on 2020 Draft Budget Progress Report

The Progress Report on the Draft Budget for 2020 estimated that 2019 will close with a 0.8% drop in the Gross Domestic Product and a stable primary balance, records that will improve next year.

For the following fiscal year, the government document predicts a strong increase of 3.5% of GDP and a primary surplus of 1%, although without specifying the expected variations in consumption, investment, and imports.

According to the government’s estimate, in both years there will be an increase in exports and the financial deficit will persist, but declining.

Inflation would be reduced to 26.1% by 2020, but the projection does not include values for the exchange rate or the interest rate.

Net public debt will fall in relation to GDP from 49.4% this year to 45.9% next year.

National Government Budget Execution Report – May 2019 – Accrual Basis

National Government Budget Execution Report – May 2019 – Accrual Basis

In May, the national government recorded a primary surplus of AR$23.99 billion but a financial deficit of AR$22.38 billion, within a framework of an acceleration in the fall of revenues in real terms. Expenditures, also in contraction, had the seventh month of decline measured against inflation.

In the term January-May, expenditures increased 40.8% year-on-year. Interest on debt, transfers to provinces and economic subsidies recorded the largest expansions in the period with 91.8%, 57.7% and 52.5% YoY, respectively. Social benefits (34.9% YoY), operating expenses (33.9% YoY) and capital expenditures (-13.0% YoY) were below the increase in total expenditure.

Social benefits account for 45.7% of the increase in total expenditure, while interest payments account for 30.7%. Both explain 76.4% of the increase in expenditure in the period under analysis.

  • National government revenues (40.5% YoY) again grew above expenditures (36.9% YoY), although the differential is reduced to 3.6 percentage points (p.p.) (5.2 p.p. in April).
  • Personnel expenditure recorded a real fall of 14.6% YoY, in line with the retraction experienced in the salaries of several sectors (SINEP).
  • After the first five months of the year, the financial balance is in deficit by AR$180.51 billion, reflecting a real reduction of 17.0% compared to the same period of the previous year.
  • So far this year, the expenditure components that grew the most were Debt Interest (91.8% YoY), Transfers to Provinces (57.7% YoY) and Economic Subsidies (52.5% YoY). At the other extreme, capital expenditure contracted 13.0% YoY in nominal terms.
  • The 76.3% of national government expenditure is rigid.
  • At the end of May, the execution level of total expenditure reached 35.4% with respect to the current appropriation, higher than the level observed during the same period of the previous year, which reached 32.3%.
Analysis of National Tax Revenue – May 2019

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – May 2019

In May, tax revenue grew 50.4% in nominal terms with respect to the same month of the previous year but declined 4.3% in real terms during the same period. This decline deepens to 6.5% when considering the first five months of the year.

Overall tax revenue has been declining in real terms for eleven consecutive months, although it began to reduce the rate of decline.

In this context, Income Tax exceeded the collection expectations for the month with an increase of 7.5% year-on-year in real terms. Together with taxes on foreign trade, it is one of the taxes whose growth exceeded inflation.

VAT contracted by 8.1% in May, although this record implies a deceleration of the falls of the last seven months.

The decline in Social Security resources deepened because of the deterioration of the labor market and the changes in the employer contributions system. However, in the fifth month of the year, Social Security resources might have found its lowest level, and in the following months the trend may consolidate.

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – March 2019

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – March 2019

In the third month of the year, national public sector revenues grew by 37.3% in nominal terms compared to the same period of the previous year but fell by 10.5% in real terms. Similar behavior was observed in the first quarter of the year.

This performance also entails a decline compared to previous months and reaffirms that government revenues are strongly linked to the level of economic activity, as shown by the VAT DGI, which fell 7.3%.

Income Tax contracted by 18.5%, partly due to the deferral of some maturities. The significant growth in Export Duties allowed mitigating the fall in the most important taxes of the national tax structure (VAT, Income Tax and Social Security Contributions).

Budget Execution Report – February 2019

Budget Execution Report – February 2019

In February, the national government had a primary surplus of AR$14.74 billion, as revenues increased nominally by 43.6%, while expenditures increased by 22.8%, 19 points lower. The financial balance was also positive by AR$1.43 billion, which also implies an improvement in relation to the deficit recorded a year ago.

During the second month of the year, tax resources increased nominally by 39.5% year-on-year (-7.5% YoY real), largely driven by export duties, which increased by 374.7% YoY, because of both amendments to legislation and changes in the exchange rate.

However, in real terms, the total resources of the national government lost against inflation, recording a drop of -7.5%. Although the drop was lower than in the previous two months, Social Security contributions fell -10.9% year-on-year.

Total expenditure amounted to AR$223.97 billion in February, an increase of 20.1% year-on-year. Current expenditures grew 22.8%, while capital expenditures contracted 17.8%.

Property Income was eight times higher than in the same month of the previous year and totaled AR$45.83 billion in the first two months of the year.

The 46% increase in allocations as of March 1 will imply a higher expenditure of AR$16.08 billion, equivalent to 0.1% of GDP in 2019.

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