Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

A surplus of AR$43.42 billion was recorded in July, a considerable improvement over the previous year’s figure (-AR$1.9 billion). The financial balance is negative by AR$21.04 billion but implies a drop of 44.4% in real terms in the year-on-year comparison. Transfers to provinces showed a monthly year-on-year drop for the first time this year.

  • The increase in resources slowed down in July, although they grew again above expenditures (55.9% vs. 49.0%).
  • Tax revenues (58.8%) led total revenue growth, while debt interest (186.4%) and capital expenditures (152.9%) were the fastest growing components of public expenditure.
  • In the first seven months of the year, the financial balance was negative by AR$359.1 billion, an increase of 11.2% with respect to the same period of the previous year. In real terms, this represents a reduction of 27.9%.
  • During the first seven months of the year, 57.0% of total expenditure was accrued, identical to the level recorded in the same period a year ago.
  • From the beginning of the fiscal year to the end of July, the initial budget was increased by AR$88.3 billion, that is, 2.1%. The 39.2% of the amendments were implemented through the Necessity and Urgency Decree 193, while the remaining 60.8% were implemented through four Administrative Decisions.
Budget Execution Report – February 2019

Budget Execution Report – February 2019

In February, the national government had a primary surplus of AR$14.74 billion, as revenues increased nominally by 43.6%, while expenditures increased by 22.8%, 19 points lower. The financial balance was also positive by AR$1.43 billion, which also implies an improvement in relation to the deficit recorded a year ago.

During the second month of the year, tax resources increased nominally by 39.5% year-on-year (-7.5% YoY real), largely driven by export duties, which increased by 374.7% YoY, because of both amendments to legislation and changes in the exchange rate.

However, in real terms, the total resources of the national government lost against inflation, recording a drop of -7.5%. Although the drop was lower than in the previous two months, Social Security contributions fell -10.9% year-on-year.

Total expenditure amounted to AR$223.97 billion in February, an increase of 20.1% year-on-year. Current expenditures grew 22.8%, while capital expenditures contracted 17.8%.

Property Income was eight times higher than in the same month of the previous year and totaled AR$45.83 billion in the first two months of the year.

The 46% increase in allocations as of March 1 will imply a higher expenditure of AR$16.08 billion, equivalent to 0.1% of GDP in 2019.

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