Ley Brisa - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

PROGRESS REPORT ON THE BILL OF THE GENERAL BUDGET OF THE NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FOR THE YEAR 2025

by Nicolas Perez | Aug 15, 2024 | Budget Law

The report basically summarizes macroeconomic projections for the current year, budget execution through May 2024, estimated revenues and financing strategy for 2025, and government employment management. The description of the scenario and the budgetary policy proposals refer to:

In the first five months a primary surplus of 1.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a financial surplus of 0.4% of GDP were achieved, after debt interest payments.
In 2024, GDP will fall by 3.5%.
The trade surplus will exceed USD 21 billion.
Zero deficit and sustained fiscal balance is a political priority. Also, the social assistance without intermediaries, the modernization and simplification of the State and the equipment and modernization of security and defense.
National revenue will increase 54.4% next year and the tax burden will be reduced by 0.45 percentage points.
The maturity profile is expected to be extended and the financial burden on the Treasury’s accounts is expected to be reduced.

FISCAL IMPACT OF BILL 0666-D-2024 ON FAMILY ALLOWANCES UPDATE

by Nicolas Perez | May 6, 2024 | Cost Estimates

The bill proposes a monthly update of family allowances and benefits such as Alimentar and those for minors who are victims of violence on the basis of the CPI, which up to now have been adjusted using the pension benefit adjustment formula.

The proposal would imply an expenditure equivalent to 1.23% of GDP, above the expenditure that would result from the extension of Law 27,609 or the application of DNU 274/24.

The adjustments are calculated with the proposed mechanism as from May and the CPI would always be that of the previous two months.

At the end of 2024, the recipients of benefits for children and adolescents would receive higher amounts if Law 27,609 were extended, with the exception of the Alimentar Benefit, the amount of which is defined by the Executive Branch.
With the formula provided for in the bill, family allowances and the programs under the Brisa Law would lag behind the increases they would have with the extension of Law 27,609 or the application of DNU274/24 until the end of the year.
Universal allowances (Universal Child Allowance – AUH -, and Universal Pregnancy Allowance – AUE -) would have an improvement in purchasing power due to the increase in their amount provided in January, but to a lesser extent than with the extension of Law 27,609 or DNU274/24.
The Alimentar benefit would improve with respect to inflation (contrary to the assumption of keeping it fixed).

As all formulas include adjustments based on the inflation of previous periods, a scenario of price deceleration would contribute to an increase in real terms. But other variables such as salaries and ANSES revenues may have a different impact.