The increase in total resources (net of Central Bank profits) and a decrease in expenditures led the National Government to record another decrease in the primary deficit in May, which reached AR$ 72.8 billion, an improvement in real terms of 81.2% with respect to the imbalance recorded in the same month of last year.

  • Excluding transfers from the Central Bank to the Treasury, total revenues expanded by 41.5% year-on-year (YoY) during May, mainly because of the growth in tax revenues, to which was added AR$ 58.24 billion from the Solidarity Contribution in the context of the pandemic.
  • Primary expenditure declined because of the drop in pensions (10.0% YoY) and public sector salaries (7.9% YoY), but also because the funds allocated to mitigate the effects of the health crisis were lower in the year-on-year comparison with May 2020.
  • Total expenditure, including debt interest payments, contracted 15.8% YoY.
  • Expenditures on social programs was reduced by 41.5%, basically because of the discontinuation of the IFE and the AETP. However, other social assistance programs were strengthened and, in some cases, increased by more than 70%.
  • There was a real increase of 36.3% in capital expenditures for the month of May (AR$ 58.69 billion), with increases in all components, but mainly in the funds allocated to the Pro.Cre.Ar. housing plan.
  • Expenditures related to the COVID-19 pandemic totaled AR$125.43 billion at the end of May. The funds allocated for this purpose increased by 308.9% since the budget began to be executed, partly because of higher exceptional revenues.


Because of the increase in resources and the decrease in expenditures, in April the primary and financial deficits fell by 85.2% and 77.4%, respectively, compared to the negative figures for the same month of last year. The economic result was positive by AR$15.97 billion.

These figures do not include the exceptional transfer of profits of AR$230 billion made by the Central Bank to the Treasury in April last year.

  • Tax revenue and Social Security resources grew significantly, by 44.9% and 14.2% year on year (YoY) in real terms, respectively. In both cases, the low comparison base resulting from the Mandatory Preventive Social Isolation (ASPO), which came into effect on March 20, 2020, had an impact.
  • Expenditures related to the COVID-19 pandemic were lower than those of last year and this influenced a drop in primary spending. In this item, social benefits and transfers to provinces fell by 26.8% YoY and 64.9% YoY, respectively.
  • Expenditures on personnel and pensions decreased at rates of 12.9% YoY and 13.4% YoY, respectively.
  • In the first four-month period, 97.4% of the budget allocated to REPRO II, prior to the last budget expansion provided for by Administrative Decision 460/2021 at the beginning of May, has already been executed.
  • In April, the implementation of social programs reached 41.1% of the appropriation allocated for the year, above the general average of 28.1%.
  • During the first four months of the year, the initial approved budget increased by AR$47.9 billion. Among the items that had the largest increases in relation to their initial appropriation were the purchase of vaccines against COVID-19 and logistics and distribution services (AR$29.2 billion), and the REPRO II Program (AR$22.2 billion).


The Chief of Cabinet of Ministers published Administrative Decision No. 4 by which it distributes the budgetary appropriations for the year 2021 in accordance with the provisions of the Budget Law.

The amendments introduced by the National Congress to the bill sent by the Executive Branch required reallocations for AR$ 97.82 billion but did not entail an increase in the total spending approved by law, but rather compensations, basically due to the reduction of Treasury liability items.

Analysis of National Public Investment projected in the 2020 Budget Bill

Analysis of National Public Investment projected in the 2020 Budget Bill

The Budget Bill submitted to Congress in September 2019 estimates a public investment amount for the national government at AR$232.21 billion, with an estimated nominal increase of 19.6% year-on-year with respect to the 2019 closing projection made by the Ministry of Finance.

Public investment of the entire National Public Sector (NPS) -including government-owned companies, trust funds and other entities- would amount to AR$318.02 billion, according to the Message 2020, which is equivalent to 4.9% of the total expenditure of the NPS. This implies a drop of 10.9% year-on-year in relation to what was projected for this year.

The largest increase is in capital transfers made by the national government to other entities or jurisdictions to carry out works or purchase goods, which increased 32.4%. Real direct investment (works projects and equipment acquisition) only increased by 6.1% YoY.

The geographical breakdown of these transfers shows a concentration in the Pampas Region, basically in the Province of Buenos Aires (18%) and in the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires (10.3%), jurisdictions in which half of the real direct investment is concentrated.

The Bill provides for the execution of 995 projects to be carried out by the national government for an average amount of AR$80 million each. The total amount shows a decline since 2011: from 0.68% of GDP in 2011 to 0.25% in 2020.

The largest amounts are allocated to railway works, such as the improvement of the Belgrano Cargas Railway, which involves several jurisdictions and would demand AR$5 billion, and to the laying of highways, including Route 19 connecting San Francisco with Córdoba or Route 8 connecting Pilar with Pergamino.

In the rest of the Public Sector, the main direct investments would be carried out by government-owned companies: Nucleoeléctrica Argentina S.A. (36.9% of the total), and Integración Energética Argentina S.A. – Ex- ENARSA (30.3%).

Analysis of Budget Execution – October 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – October 2019 – Accrual Basis

October’s primary balance was in surplus by AR$23.09 billion, improving previous year’s performance. However, considering the payment of interest on the public debt for AR$39.48 billion, the financial balance was in deficit by AR$16.38 billion.

So far this year, that negative balance amounts to AR$340.55 billion and implies an improvement of 51.6% YoY in real terms compared to the same period of 2018.

To a large extent, this is possible because in the first ten months resources grew at a rate of 57.1% YoY (2.1% YoY real) with respect to 2018, 15.3 percentage points above total expenditures, which grew by 41.9% YoY (-7.8% YoY real).

The item with the highest year-on-year expansion was family allowances, which grew by 26.1% in real terms, mainly due to the increase in the Universal Child Allowance.

National government salaries grew nominally 38.4% YoY, however, they contracted 8.9% YoY in relation to inflation.

In 2019, property income increased its share in total resources, basically due to the resumption of Treasury financing through the transfer of Central Bank profits and the decline in the level of economic activity and the formal labor market as of April 2018, with an impact on tax resources.

Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – July 2019 – Accrual Basis

A surplus of AR$43.42 billion was recorded in July, a considerable improvement over the previous year’s figure (-AR$1.9 billion). The financial balance is negative by AR$21.04 billion but implies a drop of 44.4% in real terms in the year-on-year comparison. Transfers to provinces showed a monthly year-on-year drop for the first time this year.

  • The increase in resources slowed down in July, although they grew again above expenditures (55.9% vs. 49.0%).
  • Tax revenues (58.8%) led total revenue growth, while debt interest (186.4%) and capital expenditures (152.9%) were the fastest growing components of public expenditure.
  • In the first seven months of the year, the financial balance was negative by AR$359.1 billion, an increase of 11.2% with respect to the same period of the previous year. In real terms, this represents a reduction of 27.9%.
  • During the first seven months of the year, 57.0% of total expenditure was accrued, identical to the level recorded in the same period a year ago.
  • From the beginning of the fiscal year to the end of July, the initial budget was increased by AR$88.3 billion, that is, 2.1%. The 39.2% of the amendments were implemented through the Necessity and Urgency Decree 193, while the remaining 60.8% were implemented through four Administrative Decisions.
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