ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – FEBRUARY 2024

Due to a decrease in expenditures (-23.8% YoY) and a slight increase in revenues (+0.4% YoY), in the first two months of the year, the National Government recorded a financial surplus 150.0% higher in real terms than in the same period of the previous year.

  • The primary surplus, which does not include interest payments, was 1,805.5% higher than that obtained a year earlier.
  • Total revenues grew 0.4% in the year-on-year comparison, driven by increases in the PAIS Tax (405.9% YoY), in Export Duties (70.9% YoY) and in VAT (15.4% YoY). These increases were partially offset by the decrease in resources from Social Security (-25.1% YoY) and Income Tax (-36.5% YoY).
  • Total National Government expenditures recorded a real fall of 23.8% YoY in the first two months of the year and the cut in primary expenditures, which does not include the increase in debt interest, rose to 33.6% YoY.
  • Pensions (-33.0% YoY real), energy subsidies (-59.5% YoY real), capital expenditures (-82.4% YoY real) and social programs (-29.9% YoY real) were the items that most contributed to the reduction in expenditures. However, debt interest grew 34.2% YoY.
  • In February, the financial result was in deficit (-ARS186.635 billion), although in the first two months of the year the surplus was maintained (ARS1,020.296 billion), with levels above the average of a 15-year cycle.
  • Total accrued expenditures represented 24.0% of the budget, which is an extension of the budget in force during 2023.
THE OPC PRESENTED THE LATEST BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT TO LEGISLATORS

THE OPC PRESENTED THE LATEST BUDGET EXECUTION REPORT TO LEGISLATORS

The Argentine Congressional Budget Office presented the latest published report on the Analysis of the National Government Budget Execution – January 2024 to national legislators and their advisors.

This is one of the periodic works conducted by the OPC with the purpose of monitoring revenues collected and expenditures accrued.

The presentation was given by the OPC Director, Gabriel Esterelles, together with the directors of Sustainability and Public Debt Analysis, Joel Vaisman; of Fiscal and Tax Analysis, Martín López Amorós; of Budget Analysis, Ignacio Lohle, and the analyst of this last directorate, María Laura Cafarelli.

The purpose of the online meeting was to provide members of the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate, as well as their assistants, with technical elements to improve the understanding of the monthly report disseminated through the OPC web page, offering, at the same time, the possibility of clarifying doubts about the methodology used and the results obtained.

The good reception of this new work modality was the basis for the decision to repeat it periodically to consolidate the technical dialogue between the OPC and the National Congress.

ANALYSIS OF THE 2022 NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL REPORT

ANALYSIS OF THE 2022 NATIONAL GOVERNMENT FINANCIAL REPORT

The primary result of the National Government during fiscal year 2022 was negative by ARS2,915.619 billion, equivalent to 3.5% of GDP. Excluding the remission of profits of the Central Bank received in 2021, the primary deficit implied an improvement of 1 percentage point compared to that year.

Total revenues fell 12.7% year-on-year in real terms, and primary expenditures declined 7.4% YoY.

  • Interest on debt increased by 18.0% YoY, moderating the 5.6% YoY decline in total expenditure.
  • Due to differences between the mobility adjustment formulas and inflation, family allowances fell 2.4% YoY and general regime pensions fell 2.5% YoY.
  • Capital expenditures contracted 37.6% YoY, reflecting decreases in all items and recipients.
  • The financial deficit was 5.4% of GDP, lower than in the previous year.
  • A total of 96.3% of the budget increases were allocated through a Necessity and Urgency Decree (DNU).
  • The stock of public debt payable in foreign currency totaled USD264.032 billion, showing an increase of USD10.023 billion during 2022.
  • Debt in pesos increased by the equivalent of 4.8% of GDP, reaching 28.1% of GDP.
  • During the year, the deficit of the National Non-Financial Public Sector, which includes state-owned enterprises, trust funds and other national entities, increased to 5.0% of GDP.
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