Countries that have a substantial number of guarantees extended are exposed to the risk of a fiscal shock, to the extent that they do not have sufficient budgetary resources to face a massive call on guarantees.
The exposure that the National Treasury faces in relation to guarantees provided (contractually guaranteed amount) totaled at the end of 2018 nearly USD20 billion (5.1% of GDP).
At the end of September 2019, the residual balance of indirect debt (disbursements less accumulated amortizations) was USD9.72 billion (3.1% of gross public debt).
The residual balance of indirect debt increased in 2017 and 2018 mainly due to the issuance of guarantee bills placed to the Trust Fund for the Development of Renewable Energies (FODER).
The lack of consistency in publicly available information on indirect debt makes it difficult to analyze its historical evolution.