The Budget Bill for the year 2021 estimates tax revenue at AR$6.46 trillion for 2020, and AR$9.3 trillion for 2021. The expected dynamics imply an increase of 28.6% YoY for 2020 and 43.9% for 2021.
OPC (Argentine Congressional Budget Office) estimates for 2020 a total national public sector tax revenue at AR$6.35 billion – AR$74.23 billion (1.1%) lower than the estimate made by the Ministry of Economy. For 2021, OPC’s estimates are up to AR$8.9 trillion – AR$395.47 billion lower than the 2021 Budget Bill projections.
In real terms, 2021 Budget Bill projects a revenue decline of 9% YoY for 2020, and a 9.7% YoY recovery for next year. OPC estimates that tax revenue will increase 6% YoY in 2021, a less positive dynamic than that projected in the 2021 Budget Bill.
OPC estimates that in 2021 the national government will receive 64.3% of tax resources (AR$5.98 trillion). Of this total, 35% (AR$3.26 trillion) will go to Social Security Agencies, 29.1% (AR$ 2.7 trillion) to the Central Administration, and 0.2% (AR$15.26 billion) to
Decentralized Agencies. Other entities will receive 3.7% of total resources (AR$341.99 billion), and the provinces 32% (AR$2.98 trillion).
The Budget Bill estimates that during 2021 tax expenditures will reach 2.64% of GDP (AR$995.8 billion). Of that total, 73.9% are related to special regimes included in the current tax legislation (AR$735.66 billion) and the remaining is allocated to various economic promotion programs (AR$260.14 billion).
These figures do not show significant changes with respect to 2020, a year in which the total tax expenditure is expected to reach AR$714.73 billion, equivalent to 2.63% of GDP, with a similar composition.