Seguridad Social - Oficina de Presupuesto del Congreso

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – AUGUST 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 6, 2021 | Tax Revenue

Tax revenue totaled ARS1.005 trillion in August, an increase of 64.2% year-on-year (YoY). Adjusted for inflation, the increase was 8.1% YoY.

Among the tax resources, the increase in VAT, Tax on Credits and Debits and Profits stand out. Export Duties and Social Security resources continued to show a good performance.

The low comparison base attributable to the economic effects of the Mandatory Preventive Social Isolation (ASPO) that came into force on March 20, 2020, the increase in international prices of raw materials and the increase in the nominal exchange rate (32.6% YoY) contributed favorably to these results, although a deceleration is observed.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – JULY 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Aug 6, 2021 | Tax Revenue

Tax revenues totaled ARS933.2 billion in July, which implied an increase of 66.9% year-on-year (YoY). Adjusted for inflation, it expanded 9.9% YoY.

Last month, Value Added Tax (VAT), the main tax source, grew 23.1% in real terms. The Tax on Credits and Debits and Income Tax also rose significantly.

Wealth Tax decreased (43.5%) because of the deferral of the due date for the month of August.

Export Duties (100.8%) and Social Security resources continued to show a good performance.

The low comparison base attributable to the economic effects of the Mandatory Preventive Social Isolation (ASPO) that came into effect on March 20, 2020, the increase in international commodity prices and the increase in the nominal exchange rate (34.6% YoY) contributed favorably to these results.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – JUNE 2021

by Nicolas Perez | Jul 7, 2021 | Tax Revenue

In June, tax revenues grew 69% year-on-year in nominal terms and 12.8% adjusted for inflation.

The increase was driven by the depreciation of the exchange rate (37% YoY), the increase in international commodity prices and regulatory changes. But the main factor behind the increase was the low basis of comparison since a year ago the Preventive and Compulsory Social Isolation (ASPO) was fully in force.

Higher customs duties revenues (47.6% YoY) – due to the increase in the exchange rate and the recovery of imports – drove an improvement in VAT.
The nominal increase of the dollar and the values of exported goods promoted an increase of 59.1% in the collection of Export Duties (YoY).
Social Security resources increased for the third consecutive time in eight months, although the expansion of the wage bill has been systematically below the CPI since June 2018.
PAIS Tax collection contracted again in the year-on-year comparison.
The growth of the economy continues to be the main determinant of tax revenue, which fell steadily since mid-2018, due to a lower level of activity and the implementation of Law 27,430 on Tax Reform and began to recover after the worst effects of the measures adopted to contain the health effects of the pandemic.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENT BUDGET EXECUTION – APRIL 2021

by Nicolas Perez | May 13, 2021 | Budget Execution

Because of the increase in resources and the decrease in expenditures, in April the primary and financial deficits fell by 85.2% and 77.4%, respectively, compared to the negative figures for the same month of last year. The economic result was positive by AR$15.97 billion.

These figures do not include the exceptional transfer of profits of AR$230 billion made by the Central Bank to the Treasury in April last year.

Tax revenue and Social Security resources grew significantly, by 44.9% and 14.2% year on year (YoY) in real terms, respectively. In both cases, the low comparison base resulting from the Mandatory Preventive Social Isolation (ASPO), which came into effect on March 20, 2020, had an impact.
Expenditures related to the COVID-19 pandemic were lower than those of last year and this influenced a drop in primary spending. In this item, social benefits and transfers to provinces fell by 26.8% YoY and 64.9% YoY, respectively.
Expenditures on personnel and pensions decreased at rates of 12.9% YoY and 13.4% YoY, respectively.
In the first four-month period, 97.4% of the budget allocated to REPRO II, prior to the last budget expansion provided for by Administrative Decision 460/2021 at the beginning of May, has already been executed.
In April, the implementation of social programs reached 41.1% of the appropriation allocated for the year, above the general average of 28.1%.
During the first four months of the year, the initial approved budget increased by AR$47.9 billion. Among the items that had the largest increases in relation to their initial appropriation were the purchase of vaccines against COVID-19 and logistics and distribution services (AR$29.2 billion), and the REPRO II Program (AR$22.2 billion).

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – APRIL 2021

by Nicolas Perez | May 7, 2021 | Tax Revenue

In April, national tax revenue totaled AR$817.88 billion, the highest increase since April 2003, with a real increase of 40.8% and a nominal increase of 105.5%.

The nominal exchange rate increase and the low base of comparison for last year -when the economic activity was restricted by the preventive and mandatory social isolation- partly explain this result.

Social Security resources grew in real terms for the first time since September 2020.

The most significant variations above inflation were those of Income Tax (36.4% YoY), VAT (35.7%), Wealth Tax (224.5% YoY) and co-participated taxes (154.4% YoY), in some cases because of regulatory amendments that expanded the tax base.

Tax revenue had a negative real increase since January 2020, a situation that was reversed in September 2020 steadily up to date.

PAIS Tax collection shrank again and accrued USD 2.17 billion since its creation.

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – AUGUST 2020

by Nicolas Perez | Sep 9, 2020 | Tax Revenue

National tax revenue reached AR$612.14 billion in August, which implied a nominal growth of 33.5% year on year (YoY), but a contraction in real terms of 5.2%. This fall was the most moderate since February.

The slowdown in the decline in tax revenue can be explained by the gradual increase in the level of activity due to the partial relaxation of the restrictions imposed in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. In addition, balances of Income Tax for Individuals and Wealth Tax,
whose original maturity in June was extended to August, were collected. The first advance payment for the year 2020 of the Income Tax for Individuals and Wealth Tax was also collected. PAIS tax reached a collection record, mainly driven by the purchase of foreign currency for hoarding purposes.

The uneven evolution of taxes throughout the year has generated a change in the composition of tax revenue, with a lower weight of the three most important taxes (VAT, Income Tax and Social Security) and an advance of taxes such as Wealth Tax, Co-participated Internal Revenue and PAIS Tax.

Likewise, it is estimated that the resources allocated to the National Administration fell in the first 8 months of the year by 13.6% YoY in real terms, those of Other Non-Financial Public Sector Entities by 16.8% YoY and those of the provinces by 11.5% YoY.