ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – JULY 2020

ANALYSIS OF NATIONAL TAX REVENUE – JULY 2020

Total tax revenue amounted to AR$559.09 billion in July, which implied a nominal growth of 24% YoY, however, it contracted for the seventh consecutive month when adjusted for inflation, showing a decrease of 13% YoY.

In the first seven months of the year, total collection amounted to AR$3.44 trillion, 26.2% higher than in the same period of last year.

The main factor behind the drop in inflation-adjusted tax revenues was the economic impact of COVID-19. The national tax revenue is strongly linked to the level of activity, so the recessionary context, deepened by the pandemic, is the main factor explaining why tax revenue has decreased in 22 of the last 25 months in real terms.

Fiscal federalism in Argentina. Latest developments in historical perspective

Fiscal federalism in Argentina. Latest developments in historical perspective

A review of the country’s fiscal federalism reveals the complexity of its parameters and the difficulties to establish a definitive consensus-based regime between the national government and the provinces, a constitutional mandate that has been pending for 23 years.

The federal tax co-participation regime was established by Law No.12,139 of 1935. The regulatory dispersion continued until the integration set forth in Law No.20,221 in force until 1984, recurrently infringed.

Among the decisions that infringed that law was the unilateral transfer of education and health functions to the provinces, without the respective financial allocations. This was the origin of the National Treasury contributions, an arbitrary mechanism to remedy problems as those caused by that discretionality. In 1980 pre-co-participations were introduced when it was decided that a portion of the VAT would be use for Social Security.

At the beginning of 1988, Law No.23,548 established a temporary distribution regime still in force. The secondary distribution scheme is not based on objective criteria and the original primary distribution, which reserved 54% to the provinces, was permanently altered.

The 1994 constitutional reform included co-participation in the National Constitution and provided for the enactment of a framework law before the end of 1996. 

This mandate has not yet been accomplished and the most concrete legal approach was the series of fiscal pacts signed since 1992, whose interpretation and implementation led to legal disputes: federalism of concertation in our country lacks legal certainty.

Analysis of Budget Execution – January 2020

Analysis of Budget Execution – January 2020

Total revenue recorded a real drop of 8.7% year on year (YoY) in January, while total expenditures had a growth of 2.3% YoY.

This uneven performance resulted in a financial deficit of AR$568 million, which contrasts with the surplus of AR$29.71 billion recorded in January 2019. On the other hand, the primary balance was AR$84.47 billion, 30.2% lower in real terms than in the same month of last year (AR$79,21 billion).

  • Tax and social security resources, which together accounted for 86.6% of revenues, showed significant decreases. Income Tax (-18.1% YoY) led the decline mainly due to regulatory issues. The drop is also explained by the legal amendment that reduced the obligation to make contributions on a segment of salaries, in addition to the reduction in the number of contributors last year.
  • The distinctive feature of January’s performance was the lower dynamism of Export Duties, which rose only 3.8% in the year-on-year comparison and had been acting as the driving force of the tax collection with sharp increases.
  • On the other hand, property income increased, basically due to resources from the Sustainability Guarantee Fund (FGS), which reached AR$42.8 billion, showing a real increase of 7.6% YoY.
  • The item Pensions fell 0.6% YoY in real terms. Considering the extraordinary “bonus” of AR$5,000 for the lowest pensions, there was a recovery of 10.3% YoY.
  • Economic subsidies (AR$3.61 billion) contracted 52.5% YoY, which is mainly explained by energy subsidies which had registered an execution of AR$2.05 billion in January 2019 and recorded no outlays in January 2020.
  • Consumer goods and payment of utilities reflected a real drop of 58.4% YoY, as well as capital expenditures, which fell 62.1% YoY. Debt services, on the other hand, increased by 12.4% YoY compared to January of the previous year.
Analysis of National Government Budget Execution – Year 2019

Analysis of National Government Budget Execution – Year 2019

Fiscal year 2019 ended with a real increase in resources of 2.1% with respect to the previous year and with a contraction in expenditure of 6.4% YoY, spread across the main components, apart from debt interest, which increased by 10.7% YoY in real terms.

The combination of these behaviors resulted in a financial deficit of AR$845.99 billion, equivalent to 3.9% of the Gross Domestic Product, 1.7 percentage points below that of the previous year. The primary balance showed a surplus of AR$75.49 billion, an improvement compared to 2018.

The evolution of Export Duties was decisive in the increase in tax revenues, which had a real jump of 164.4% year-on-year because of the increase in tax rates, the devaluation of the exchange rate and the higher quantities exported by the soybean sector.

This scenario offset the fall in other tax items and the resources of the social security system, affected by the lower economic activity and the reduction of taxable wages.

In 2019, national government expenditure reached AR$4.74 trillion, which implies an execution level of 96.2% of the allocated budget. The initial approved appropriation increased by 18.1%, with debt interest being the item that most contributed to such variation (29.2%).

Analysis of Budget Execution – November 2019 – Accrual Basis

Analysis of Budget Execution – November 2019 – Accrual Basis

The primary balance for the month of November resulted in a deficit of AR$109.34 billion, the third month of the fiscal year with a negative outcome. Debt interest amounted to AR$124.23 billion, which had an impact on the deficit of AR$233.57 billion in the month and accumulated a disequilibrium of AR$568.49 billion in the eleven months of the current year. Even so, this figure implied a real improvement of 32.9% YoY compared to that recorded in November last year.

National government revenues increased 58.8% year-on-year (YoY), mainly explained by the growth of Export Duties (141.1% YoY in real terms), as the agro-export sector speeded up settlements due to the expectation of an increase in tax rates.

November was the month with the highest year-on-year expansion of total expenditures so far this year (87.2% YoY), mainly driven by the growth of real direct investment (1,302.6% YoY), transfers to provinces (206.9% YoY) and interest on debt (155.1% YoY).

As of November 30, 82.0% of total budget was accrued, with the execution of current transfers to the provinces (86.2%) standing out. During this period, the initial budget approved for the year increased by AR$797.26 billion, which represents 19.1% of the initial appropriation. A total of 88.8% of the amendments were implemented through Necessity and Emergency Decrees, and the remaining 11.2% through Administrative Decisions.

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – October 2019

Analysis of National Tax Revenue – October 2019

In October, tax revenue totaled AR$446.17 billion, which implied a growth of 42.8% YoY. In the annual cumulative figure as of October, tax resources of the National Public Sector show a 46.8% YoY growth. Revenue decreased by 5.9% YoY in real terms in the tenth month of the year.

October revenues were reduced by the impact of the fiscal stimulus measures announced by the National Executive Power during the month of August. According to OPC estimates, those measures caused a loss of resources of around AR$35 billion last month. Excluding this effect, nominal revenue would have grown 53.9% YoY, and 1.4% YoY in real terms.

The measures mentioned above particularly affected the collection of Income Tax, Social Security and VAT. On the other hand, Export Duties increased in October with respect to the previous month because of a higher number of tons for export.

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